Anthropic is accelerating its path to going public, with a fundraising target that could match or even exceed the record set by SpaceX this past June. The company confidentially filed a draft S-1 registration with the SEC on June 1, and could convert to a public filing as early as the end of this month. Market rumors suggest a roadshow could take place in September, with a listing targeted for October — though none of these timelines have been officially confirmed.

Over the past two years, the market has largely paid up for AI company valuations based on imagined future growth. Once Anthropic goes public, its revenue quality, compute costs, cash burn, and customer retention will all face scrutiny from public markets.

Anthropic's annualized revenue climbed from $9 billion at the end of last year to roughly $47 billion by May 2026. The company subsequently completed a Series H round at a $96.5 billion valuation; by the end of July, its annualized revenue run rate had risen further to $65 billion. The market expects that if the current growth pace holds, full-year 2026 annualized revenue could reach $100–120 billion.

Meanwhile, Q2 revenue grew nearly 14-fold year-over-year, and the company posted its first positive adjusted operating profit — ahead of its own internal target of profitability by 2028.

Based on the expected $2 trillion valuation and the recent $65 billion annualized revenue run rate, Anthropic's price-to-sales ratio works out to roughly 30x — near the top end of the valuation range for high-growth software companies.

But for a foundation model company like Anthropic, price-to-sales alone doesn't tell the whole story. Given that the company's full-year 2025 net loss still ran to roughly $42 billion, what the market really wants to know is whether rapid revenue growth can ultimately translate into sustainable gross margin, operating profit, and free cash flow.

First, some traders may already hold indirect exposure. According to public disclosures, Alphabet holds roughly 14% of Anthropic (with a contractual cap of 15%); Amazon is one of the largest outside shareholders, with a stake near 15%, and has committed to purchasing more than $100 billion of compute from Amazon Web Services over the next decade. Nvidia and Microsoft have each committed billions of dollars in investment as well.

In other words, once the IPO lands, the market will have a more direct, public valuation anchor for re-assessing these companies' AI exposure.

Second, SpaceX offers a ready-made reference point. In June this year, SpaceX's market value briefly topped $1.7 trillion shortly after listing, but its share price has since seen notable volatility. If Anthropic does match or exceed that scale, what traders really need to watch is whether secondary-market pricing after listing can be sustained by subsequent earnings — rather than chasing the move impulsively.

In addition, OpenAI forms an important point of comparison. Its revenue is reported to have doubled from $20 billion at the end of last year to roughly $40 billion, and it has likewise filed confidentially for an IPO — though its listing timeline is thought to be running somewhat behind Anthropic's.

If Anthropic goes public first, its IPO pricing and post-listing market performance could serve as an important reference point for OpenAI's future valuation, and could further shape risk appetite across the broader AI trade.

First, compute costs. According to forecasts the company disclosed to investors in May, Anthropic's compute costs ran at 71 cents for every $1 of revenue in Q1, with that ratio expected to fall to 56 cents in Q2. That 15-cent improvement may have been a key factor in helping the company turn adjusted operating profit positive in Q2.

The issue is that Q2's profitability may not yet fully reflect future compute costs. Anthropic's compute purchase agreement with SpaceX is currently still in a discounted period, with full rates kicking in from Q3 — equivalent to roughly $1.25 billion in monthly spend, continuing through 2029. This means cost pressure could climb further. At the same time, the company has also committed to long-term purchases of Amazon Web Services.

Anthropic has also cautioned investors that it cannot guarantee continued profitability in Q3 and Q4. With compute costs running high, the real test of profitability is only just beginning.

Second, governance structure. The company is reportedly considering introducing a super-voting-rights structure, so that even if the founding team's equity is diluted, it can retain strong decision-making power. After the IPO, the voting structure, the founding team's control, and the actual free float could all affect institutional investors' appetite to subscribe, as well as post-listing performance.

Third, the regulatory environment. In June this year, U.S. export control measures led to two of the company's models being briefly taken offline for nearly three weeks, before being restored in early July. This shows that policy risk can already directly affect the pace of commercialization for AI companies. Export controls on chips and models could also become an important variable affecting future growth.

Fourth, competitive pressure. Anthropic faces competition not only from U.S. giants like OpenAI and Google, but also from lower-cost alternatives such as Chinese open-source models. If price competition among foundation models intensifies, revenue growth may continue, but margins may not necessarily improve in step.

IPO pricing matters, of course, but for traders, what really belongs on the trading calendar is earnings performance over the next two quarters.

If profitability cannot be sustained in Q3 and Q4, the narrative that "AI companies have started to monetize" may prove to be only a temporary improvement, and the $2 trillion valuation would need to be re-tested.

If, even under higher compute costs, Anthropic can still maintain rapid growth and positive operating profit, that would go some way toward showing that the AI business model is truly moving from a "high-growth story" to "profitability at scale."

Ahead of the official listing, market sentiment is likely to keep swinging around this "profitability test" — and opportunities may not be limited to the period after the IPO officially lists.

For traders who want to get involved in this move early, rather than simply waiting for the results to be announced, Pepperstone is expected to offer an Anthropic Pre-IPO perpetual CFD in the future, allowing traders to express their view directly on this valuation debate before the IPO lands. Stay tuned!