Bitcoin Bull Run: Can BTC Extend Towards $90k as Macro Dynamics Shift?

Summary 

• Bitcoin rallied +12.1% in April, its best month since April 2025 

• Institutions bought aggressively, while retail remained sceptical and under-positioned 

• BTC traded as a high beta play to NASDAQ 100, with correlations hitting multi-year highs 

• Flows rotated out of gold into Bitcoin, pushing the BTC/gold ratio sharply higher 

• ETF inflows and MicroStrategy accumulation supported price 

• Key question: can BTC extend towards $90k or will macro shifts favour gold? 

• Next catalysts likely come from regulation and adoption, not macro correlations 

A Strong Rally Built on Institutional Demand

After consolidating and building a solid base between February and April, Bitcoin and many altcoins put in a strong bull market rally throughout April and into May, delivering the best monthly performance (+12.1%) since April 2025. It was a rally that institutional players bought into, but the retail trading and investment community had limited faith and trust in, showing little conviction in the persistence of the evolving bull trend. 

Bitcoin as a High Beta Play and Portfolio Diversifier 

Institutions viewed Bitcoin and many altcoins as outright high beta risk assets, with the 60-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and NASDAQ 100 futures hitting 74% on 30 April, and the 120-day rolling correlation rising to 59%, the tightest statistical relationship since October 2022. As a result, investors often faced a choice between gaining exposure to BTC or AI-related equities and NASDAQ 100 futures. 

However, BTC was also viewed tactically as a more efficient portfolio diversifier, with multi-asset players reducing exposure to gold and credit and increasing allocations towards Bitcoin. 

Liquidity Regime Missing but Gold Faced Headwinds 

Bitcoin’s best performance has historically come in a rising liquidity regime, where money supply growth is increasing, central banks are exhausting the limits on rate cuts, and utilising their balance sheets to inject liquidity into the system. While we have seen some uplift in US and global money supply, these other factors were clearly not prevalent. 

What was evident, however, were the headwinds facing gold, with the energy supply crisis in the Middle East driving market pricing for the perceived Fed terminal rate to 3.80%, while US 10-year real rates increased by around 50 basis points. 

ETF Flows and Positioning Drive Momentum

With gold out of favour through March to May, the Bitcoin-gold ratio rose from 12.17x to 17.94x. In turn, this re-diversification theme recorded solid inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, specifically the iShares Bitcoin Trust. 

These inflows into BTC spot ETFs married well with MicroStrategy accumulating 57k BTC throughout April, alongside various flow-based effects such as the liquidation of leveraged short positions. At the same time, options dealers, who have been sellers of BTC calls, dynamically managed exposures by buying BTC to bring their delta to neutral. 

Can Bitcoin Extend Towards $90k? 

With Bitcoin recently finding technical resistance and increased supply at its 200-day moving average, and its dominance over altcoins rising towards 59%, the key question is whether the bull market rally in BTC can extend towards $90k. 

This would likely require higher exchange balances and greater confidence from retail investors, potentially leading to a renewed bout of FOMO, a phenomenon seen widely last July and August. 

Macro Shift Could Favour Gold Again 

Conversely, with recent news flow raising the probability of some form of agreement between the US and Iran, which could lead to a gradual increase in vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz, a shift in macro dynamics is possible. 

If US inflation expectations roll over alongside lower real rates, this could prompt investors to recalibrate portfolio diversification back towards gold. With positioning and crowding already exceptionally rich in US AI-related plays, this adds weight to the view that the BTC/NASDAQ 100 relationship may continue to break down. 

The Next Catalyst: Regulation and Adoption 

This reflects the tone in many client conversations, where the view is that the next catalyst may not come from external macro factors, but from within the crypto ecosystem itself. 

These include greater clarity on the evolution of a US strategic Bitcoin reserve, as well as progress on regulatory developments such as the Clarity Act moving through the Senate Banking Committee and towards a broader Senate vote. This would position the US banking system more directly against the stablecoin market and the broader crypto ecosystem.